Strategic expert and retired military officer Amit Yagur analyzes that Saudi Arabia is adopting a "two-track" strategy on the Iran issue: on the one hand, urging the US to maintain negotiations and avoid military action; on the other hand, actively seeking to expand direct contact with Iran.
Yagur categorizes Saudi Arabia alongside Turkey, Pakistan, and Qatar as part of the "old order camp," arguing that its policy orientation contradicts the US goal of exerting maximum pressure and changing the Iranian regime. Saudi Arabia's opposition to a military strike against Iran not only hinders the Pentagon's plans but also conflicts with Israel's vision of building a new regional order. Yagur states that Saudi Arabia prefers to manage tensions with Iran through diplomatic means rather than joining an alliance centered on US-Israeli security with the condition of normalization under the "Abraham Accords."
Yagur mentions that Saudi Arabia is trying to persuade the Trump administration to continue negotiations, as evidenced by the frequent visits to Iran by its senior officials. He also mentions the movements of the Saudi Defense Minister and Pakistani and Turkish security officials within the framework of the Mecca Alliance. Furthermore, he states that Saudi Arabia's refusal to allow regional bases and airspace to be used to strike Iran limits the space for large-scale US military action against Iran.
In defining regional blocs, Yaqub distinguished Saudi Arabia from the UAE and Bahrain, the latter of which are more inclined to strengthen security and military cooperation with the US and Israel rather than directly engage with Tehran. Yaqub concluded by warning that if Trump disregards Saudi considerations and insists on military action, it could escalate the military confrontation, thereby reshaping the regional security landscape and the relationship between Arab countries and the US and Israel.
