Middle East oil supply has recently exceeded demand for the first time since
July, when a US‑Iran temporary ceasefire allowed tankers to clear the Strait of
Hormuz and sent global oil prices sharply lower. This week Dubai near‑month
crude traded about $2/bbl below December, reflecting a near‑term contango. Data
show Arab exporters’ flows are now roughly in line with pre‑February war levels
while Iranian exports remain stalled; combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose about 10% last month to just above 15.0 mln bpd. June
Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said flows have increased
but not reached the brief end‑June surplus when large volumes loaded onto VLCCs
and left the region; the current rise is more gradual.
