As the US midterm election results are gradually released, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that the probability of Democrats gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives is rapidly rising.
Senate: Kalshi shows the probability of Democrats gaining control of the Senate has surged to 91%, while Polymarket's figure is 95%. Before polls closed, Kalshi indicated a roughly 75% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate, while Polymarket's figure was slightly higher.
House of Representatives: Polymarket shows the probability of Republicans retaining control of the House has now fallen to less than 1%, while Kalshi's figure is 2%.
Note: The above data reflects real-time trading prices in prediction markets and is not official election results.
