Decision Desk HQ projects Democrat James Talarico will win the Texas U.S. Senate seat, defeating Republican Ken Paxton — the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988. The outcome increases Democratic odds of retaking the Senate; Democrats

2026-11-04

Decision Desk HQ projects Democrat James Talarico will win the Texas U.S. Senate seat, defeating Republican Ken Paxton — the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988. The outcome increases Democratic odds of retaking the Senate; Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain a majority. U.S. media project Democrats have also flipped the Senate races in North Carolina and South Carolina.