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Eurozone CPI rose 4.0% YoY in October, up from 3.8% in September and the highest since Sep 2023, ECB data showed, taking inflation to roughly double the ECB's 2% target and strengthen the case for further tightening. President Lagarde said policy dir

2026-11-04

Eurozone CPI rose 4.0% YoY in October, up from 3.8% in September and the highest since Sep 2023, ECB data showed, taking inflation to roughly double the ECB's 2% target and strengthen the case for further tightening. President Lagarde said policy direction is clear; several Governing Council members warned this week October's pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Investors and analysts expect the ECB to act in December, when updated quarterly staff projections for the 21-member euro area will be published. Markets price the deposit rate rising from 2.5% now to around 3% or higher next year. Inflationary pressure remains concentrated in energy, but the ECB aims to prevent pass-through to wages and prices; its internal wage tracker projects a marked slowdown in eurozone wage growth by 2027.

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2026-11-04

Data from the prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of Trump being impeached during his term has surged to 78.7%.

Data from the prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of Trump being impeached during his term has surged to 78.7%.
2026-11-04

Israeli officials have shared intelligence with the US over the past two weeks claiming Iran is accelerating chemical-weapons development and considering missile or other delivery, and that the chemical threat is more urgent than Tehran’s nuclear pro

Israeli officials have shared intelligence with the US over the past two weeks claiming Iran is accelerating chemical-weapons development and considering missile or other delivery, and that the chemical threat is more urgent than Tehran’s nuclear program. US intelligence broadly assesses Iran is developing chemical capabilities but disagrees sharply on whether Iran’s leadership would use them; weapons experts say loading agents onto ballistic missiles is feasible but effective dispersal is technically challenging; Iran denies having chemical weapons. Some US officials view Israel’s warnings as pressure to push the US toward renewed large-scale military action, and Gulf states have expressed skepticism; other US officials say the threat merits serious attention. CENTCOM has drafted plans to strike Iran as early as Wednesday after the US midterm elections and expects to deploy three carrier strike groups to the Middle East, though the operational window may be short and one carrier is due back in port in early November. US intelligence assesses Iran’s threat to US interests in the region is at its highest level since the February outbreak of war, citing espionage, cyberattacks and AI-enabled voice-phishing.
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