El Nifio's continued strengthening has pushed forecasts toward a potentially
record-warm US winter, which would materially reduce heating and power-sector
natural gas demand. Commodity Weather Group president Matt Rogers said
heating-degree weighted October was the third warmest since 1950 and the trend
should intensify; November is likely to be the warmest on record, and the core
winter (Dec–Feb) and the Nov–Mar heating season are also projected to be record
warm. The pattern already hit US gas producers and bullish traders in October.
CFTC weekly data show funds have built record gross short positions in US
natural gas futures and hold net shorts at their largest level since February
2020, reflecting sharply bearish market positioning.
