Asian rice benchmark has risen to its highest in nearly two years amid El Nifio,
heightening food inflation risk. Harvest is underway across Asia; India, the
The world's largest rice exporter, is experiencing drier-than-normal conditions that
are weighing on output. The USDA expects global rice production this season to
fall for the first time in over a decade. Thailand exporters report 5% broken
white rice bids at $499/ton, the highest since Dec 2024, while Chicago rough
rice futures are up more than 80% YTD. Other major grains, including corn and
wheat, are trading lower. Retail pass-through remains delayed but is emerging:
the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, reported October rice prices
up 7.8% YoY. The FAO also projects a decline in global rice output in 2026–27.
