In a recent research report, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at macro research firm TS Lombard, pointed out that the recent correction in U.S. stocks remains primarily concentrated in the technology sector. Changes in inter-sector correlations indicate that the market has not yet exhibited the typical characteristics of a full-blown bear market.
The report states that excluding Google and Nvidia, the remaining S&P 500 components rose a combined 0.8% in October, indicating that the index's weakness was mainly dragged down by a few large-cap technology stocks.
Data from the report shows that the correlation coefficients between the financial, healthcare, and materials sectors and the S&P 500 index were 0.54, 0.64, and 0.42 in June, September, and October, respectively, but turned to -0.48, -0.58, and -0.47 in October.
Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient for the information technology sector remained at 0.82, slightly higher than the previous 0.80, indicating that technology stocks continue to move highly in sync with the broader market, while other sectors showed significant divergence.
Blitz believes that a full-blown bear market is usually accompanied by a convergence in the correlation of returns across different sectors, and the current increase in the negative correlation between non-technology sectors and the broader market is more consistent with the characteristics of a localized sector correction. He judged that the US stock market as a whole has not yet entered a phase of widespread decline, and the subsequent market performance will be more affected by changes in fiscal, monetary and geopolitical policies.
