Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at macro research firm TS Lombard, points out that while the conclusion of U.S. midterm elections typically helps alleviate political uncertainty, historical data shows that year-end stock market performance depends more on previous market trends and the macroeconomic policy environment. In the six midterm elections since 2002, the S&P 500 index has maintained its pre-election trend four times, with only two instances of a reversal.
Specifically, after the 2018 midterm elections, the S&P 500 index fell 9% by the end of the year, which Blitz primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve's continued tightening of monetary policy. In 2002, the Republicans gained eight seats in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate, but the S&P 500 index still fell 3.9% from the election to the end of the year. In contrast, the S&P 500 rose 5.4% and 2.3% respectively after the 2010 and 2014 elections.
Blitz believes that the winning party in an election lacks a stable explanatory power for the direction of the stock market; the impact of monetary policy and the economic environment is more direct. He predicts that as the US political landscape changes, future market performance will be increasingly influenced by fiscal budgets, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical decisions.
