Following the US midterm elections, the Democratic Party won control of both houses of Congress, and the market anticipates further increases in political pressure on the Trump administration to end the war with Iran. Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran, which drove up gasoline prices, was one of the reasons for the Republican Party's electoral loss, and stated that there are currently no plans to attack Iran. Meanwhile, Qatar is intensifying its mediation efforts to push for US-Iran negotiations. The market is beginning to price in the possibility of de-escalation and the resumption of Gulf oil exports. However, a significant gap remains between the two sides and an agreement. A senior Iranian official previously told Reuters that the US and Iran are far from reaching a deal. With supply disruptions continuing, the current drop in oil prices primarily reflects market expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough; if negotiations break down, geopolitical risk premiums may rise again.
