Following the US midterm elections, markets are focusing on whether the Trump administration will launch a large-scale military strike against Iran. Military deployments indicate that the US military possesses the capability to launch airstrikes similar to those in early February: two aircraft carriers are currently deployed in the Arabian Sea, along with approximately 200 land-based fighter jets and over 190 aerial refueling tankers distributed across the Middle East and Europe.
However, the real constraint lies in ammunition reserves. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in July that the US Patriot interceptor stockpile was only about one-third of its pre-war stockpile, and its THAAD anti-missile interceptor stockpile was about half to 60%. Previous operations against Iran also consumed over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles and approximately 1,100 JASSM long-range air-launched missiles. Meanwhile, US intelligence assessed in May that Iran still retained about 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile and about 75% of its mobile missile launchers.
Analysts believe that while the US military is capable of launching a new large-scale strike, continued reliance on high-end interceptor missiles and long-range precision-guided weapons will limit the duration of operations. A shift towards more low-cost, short-range munitions would also increase the risks faced by US aircraft and personnel.
