UK inflation rose to 3.5% YoY, above the Bank of England’s July forecast of 3%,
driven chiefly by a near-30% YoY jump in fuel prices tied to the Iran war.
Traders have largely priced in a BoE rate rise tonight, so the move itself may
have limited impact on sterling; market focus should be on the BoE’s signaling
for 2027, when it has said inflation could be slightly above 4% in early 2027.
The BoE noted in September minutes there is so far little evidence of
second‑round wage‑price effects, but July research found that once inflation
exceeds roughly 3–3.5% an oil-price shock more than doubles its typical impact
on inflation. The hike is expected to pass roughly 7–2, with Taylor and Dhingra
the most likely dissenters; a closer vote would imply weaker support for further
tightening.
