IG Group's chief market analyst, Bosch, stated that financial markets appear to be betting on an impending end to the US-Iran war, but the possibility of further US military strikes remains high.
Bosch said, "The market is clearly pricing in an end to the war, and oil prices have fallen significantly. However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding Trump's next move." He pointed out that even if Defense Secretary Hegerseth is dismissed, it might only signal Trump's desire to end the conflict, but should not be used as a basis for conclusions. He cited the example of former President George W. Bush dismissing Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense shortly before announcing the deployment of additional troops to Iraq.
Bosch warned that the current US troop presence in the region remains roughly the same as in February, therefore the possibility of another large-scale US military strike against Iran cannot be ruled out. He said, "It's clear that Trump wants to find a way out, and Iran needs to act cautiously, avoiding excessive mockery or demands for concessions. Overall, I think the US is still very likely to launch a strike, but given the low level of US ammunition reserves, this operation is unlikely to escalate into a prolonged military campaign."
