The Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that the war could not end without the United States and President Trump, but a new role for Europe needs to be defined.

Spot gold briefly breached $4,090/oz, up 0.75% intraday.

Energy: 1. The UAE is considering building a third crude oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. 2. India plans to triple its power plant coal stocks to prepare for summer power outages. 3. HSBC raised its Q4 2026 crude oil production forecast for Saudi Aramco to 8.3 million barrels per day from 6.3 million barrels per day. 4. Kazakhstan reiterated its plan to produce 96 million tons of oil this year and approximately 99 million tons in 2027. 5. Fujairah refined product inventories: As of the week ending November 2, total refined product inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels to 11.414 million barrels. 6. Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy: The oil and gas sector is projected to decline by 1.8% in 2027, unchanged from the 2026 forecast. 7. Sources: A stake in US shale oil producer Enduring Resources IV is being explored for sale, valued at over $4 billion. 8. According to the Financial Times: US-Russia diesel trade is expected to be disrupted, with two tankers already diverted. Agriculture/Mining: 1. Indonesia's National Economic Council supports cutting nickel production through RKAB. 2. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the US Department of Agriculture signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at maintaining the integrity of the US agricultural market. 3. Citigroup: Expects gold to reach a target price of $4,500/oz in the next 0-3 months and $5,000/oz in the next 6-12 months. 4. Indonesia is investigating a former Glencore trader, potentially leading to a major reshuffle in the nickel mining industry. 5. Weak Russian export prospects raise supply concerns, driving up wheat prices. Global Shipping Situation: 1. Panama Canal official: The highest amount paid by a ship transiting the Panama Canal this year was $5.2 million. Currently, approximately three LNG carriers transit the Panama Canal per week, compared to two per day before the war. 2. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz struck mines and caught fire; two US military drones were seized. Other: 1. El Niño continues to strengthen; the US may experience its warmest winter on record this year.