In a recent research report, Dario Perkins, Global Head of Macro Research at research and consulting firm TS Lombard, pointed out that, according to estimates, over 80% of AI ecosystem revenue currently comes from internal capital expenditure cycles, with a relatively small proportion coming from external businesses and consumers. US hyperscale cloud computing providers invest over $1 trillion annually in the AI ecosystem, continuously driving revenue growth for chip, data center, and related suppliers, becoming a significant driver of profit expansion for US technology companies in 2026.
The report argues that this profit growth is closely related to the financing structure of the AI industry. Capital expenditures by cloud computing giants translate into revenue for other companies in the supply chain, and some companies also gain investment returns by holding equity in AI companies. The report estimates that the technology sector will contribute approximately two-thirds of the S&P 500's equal-weighted index's profit growth in 2026, but a significant portion of this will still rely on the continued expansion of AI infrastructure investment.
Perkins warns that as the year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditures by cloud computing giants approaches its peak, the AI industry needs more actual paid revenue from external businesses and consumers to maintain current profit growth. If capital expenditures slow down, and revenue from the commercialization of AI services fails to accelerate, the investment cycle that previously drove the profit expansion of technology companies may weaken, and the profit expectations of related companies will also face adjustments.
