Indosuez Wealth Management says markets are pricing the Fed and ECB materially more hawkishly than its base case. Strategist Lucas Merrick and portfolio manager Alexander Bell expects growth to remain steady and inflation to normalize gradually, whic

2026-11-06

Indosuez Wealth Management says markets are pricing the Fed and ECB materially more hawkishly than its base case. Strategist Lucas Merrick and portfolio manager Alexander Bell expects growth to remain steady and inflation to normalize gradually, which would limit scope for further tightening. They add it may take time for sufficient underlying inflation and growth data to accumulate for that scenario to materialize; in the meantime bond markets should stay volatile. Money markets currently price roughly 1.5 Fed hikes and two ECB hikes over the next 12 months.