Gulf M&A activity cooled sharply: Q3 deal value involving Gulf companies fell to
about $5bn, the weakest quarterly total since 2022 and down from $69bn a year
earlier. Since the start of Q4, regional deal value has declined by more than
90% YoY. Market participants point to disruptions from the Iran war and the
prospect of tougher U.S. merger scrutiny under a shifting U.S. politics
backdrop; 2025’s surge—highlighted by a roughly $55bn Electronic Arts
transaction—made the current slowdown look like post-boom normalization rather
than a market exit. Activity remains above the five‑year average and Wall Street
banks are still expanding local teams. Lumina Capital Advisers partner James
Jarvis said corporate boards paused deals early in the conflict to reassess
business impacts, delaying M&A and divestitures.
