New York Fed October consumer expectations survey: one-, three- and five-year
inflation expectations held at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.0% respectively. Mean
probability that the unemployment rate will rise over the next year climbed to
45.3%, the highest since April 2020; personal probability of becoming unemployed
over the next year rose to 13.9%. Probability of finding a job after
Unemployment rose to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025. Probability
Households will be unable to make minimum debt payments in the next three months
rose to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025. Household income growth
fell expectations to 3.0% and expected consumption growth to 5.3%.
