Moody's projects global growth will slow from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026 and
remain near that pace in 2027-28. Advanced economies are forecast to expand
about 1.7% next year; emerging markets’ growth is expected to slow from 4.5% in
2025 to roughly 4% by 2027. With oil near the upper end of a $90-110 per barrel
range, Moody's expects headline inflation to ease and oil prices to begin
declining from mid-2027. Central banks are likely to opt for limited rate hikes
rather than a sustained tightening cycle. Hyperscale cloud providers’ capex
should remain around $1tn next year, but growth should slow from roughly 100%
this year to about 25% next year, reducing its GDP support.
