Morgan Stanley predicts that local political and regulatory obstacles in the US may postpone approximately 4.9GW of data center projects from 2028 to 2029, equivalent to about 20% of the originally planned new capacity in 2028. Texas and Ohio are likely to be the most affected states, with newly elected governors and state legislators potentially imposing new approval and construction requirements on data center developers.
As a result, Morgan Stanley has lowered its 2028 forecast for new US data center capacity from approximately 24.9GW to 19.9GW, while raising its 2029 forecast from 22.7GW to 27.6GW. New capacity is expected to decline by about 4% year-on-year in 2028, rebounding by about 38% in 2029. Projects already approved or under construction will be less affected, with construction plans for 2027 expected to remain largely unchanged.
Morgan Stanley emphasizes that this change primarily involves a postponement of construction timelines, rather than a reduction in investment scale. The bank expects hyperscale cloud service providers to maintain their capital expenditure plans, at approximately $1.6 trillion in 2027 and $1.8 trillion in 2028. Project delays also mean potential misalignments in the delivery times of server, chip, and storage equipment demand.
