SK Hynix's quarterly operating profit is projected to reach 108 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2026 and rise to 135 trillion won by the end of 2027, with growth primarily driven by conventional DRAM rather than HBM. Sell-side models predict that conventional DRAM will contribute 215 trillion won in operating profit for the full year of 2026, with an operating profit margin as high as 86%, accounting for 93% of total DRAM business profit. In contrast, HBM's operating profit margin is projected at 59%, contributing 21 trillion won in operating profit.
While conventional memory chips will contribute the majority of profit growth in 2026, analysts expect HBM prices to rise 74% year-on-year in 2027, pushing the HBM operating profit margin to 66% and operating profit to 53 trillion won, as the higher value-added HBM4 accounts for more than 50% of shipments by the end of 2027.
SK Hynix's operating profit for the full year of 2027 is projected to increase by 73% year-on-year, reaching 500 trillion won; and by 21% year-on-year, reaching 606 trillion won. This growth is driven by continued tight data center capacity and secured long-term contracts.
Market expectations indicate that analysts predict SK Hynix's operating profit will reach 500 trillion won in 2027 and 606 trillion won in 2028, significantly higher than the market consensus of 422 trillion won and 481 trillion won, respectively. This difference primarily reflects analysts' forecasts for DRAM and NAND contract prices being approximately 10% higher than the market consensus.
The next key variable to watch is whether cloud service provider (CSP) capital expenditure can maintain growth of over 60% in 2027. Power grid shortages and delays in data center construction could both impact the deployment schedule of computing infrastructure.
