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A Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey survey shows expected GDP growth of 2.9% at end-2026, unchanged from the previous forecast of 2.9%.

2026-11-13

A Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey survey shows expected GDP growth of 2.9% at end-2026, unchanged from the previous forecast of 2.9%.

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2026-11-13

The nationwide opposition to new data center construction in the United States is reshaping the competitive landscape of the AI infrastructure industry. Barclays believes that the slowdown in construction may actually benefit tech giants like Amazon

The nationwide opposition to new data center construction in the United States is reshaping the competitive landscape of the AI infrastructure industry. Barclays believes that the slowdown in construction may actually benefit tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft, who already possess substantial data center and grid connection capacity. Andrew Keches, a director at Barclays, stated that data centers already in operation or with power access have scarcity value, and fewer new projects could alleviate pressure on equipment, labor, and financing costs, while reducing subsequent capital expenditures for large tech companies. Reports indicate that related political resistance has already impacted market pricing: on November 4th, Amazon and Microsoft shares rose by more than 6%, while the shares of some less financially strong data center operators and semiconductor companies fell. Meanwhile, on November 12th, the Edgerton City Council in Kansas approved a special election, with residents deciding in March 2027 whether to implement a 10-year ban on high-energy-consuming data centers, affecting an $860 million data center project in the area.
2026-11-13

Entering 2026, we anticipate that the continued acceleration of AI investment will be a core factor influencing stock valuations, potentially leading to higher market volatility and wider credit spreads. While we expect AI investment to maintain str

Entering 2026, we anticipate that the continued acceleration of AI investment will be a core factor influencing stock valuations, potentially leading to higher market volatility and wider credit spreads. While we expect AI investment to maintain strong growth, our forecasts indicate that the proportion of incremental AI investment to GDP (i.e., the AI investment surge) may peak in early 2027. From a macroeconomic perspective, this change is generally manageable, but it could pose a greater challenge to financial markets for three main reasons. First, AI investment contributes far more to corporate earnings and stock market capitalization growth than it directly contributes to GDP growth. Second, AI-related stocks have already received a significant valuation premium due to anticipated productivity gains, especially companies directly benefiting from the AI infrastructure investment boom. This means that these stocks are more vulnerable to shocks should signs emerge indicating that the AI industry's development prospects fall short of expectations. Third, the peak in growth momentum itself could be a significant market turning point, even if actual growth remains healthy. Once the incremental growth of AI investment surpasses its peak, the market may begin to reassess the upside potential for future growth. As investment growth slows, the number of consistently positive surprises exceeding market expectations may also gradually decrease. We may have already begun to see this shift in the AI capital expenditure cycle.
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