Businesses using artificial intelligence (AI) are significantly more optimistic about future growth. According to the Federal Reserve Bank's 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, among U.S. businesses using AI, the percentage expecting revenue growth over the next 12 months is 48.2 percentage points higher than those expecting a decline. In contrast, this gap is only 20.6 percentage points among businesses not using AI, less than half that of AI-using businesses.
Meanwhile, the percentage expecting an increase in headcount among AI-using businesses is 32.7 percentage points higher than those expecting a decrease; for non-AI-using businesses, this gap is only 15.2 percentage points. Even after adjusting for business characteristics, the demographics of business owners, and changes in revenue and employment over the past 12 months, these differences persist. Even after adjusting for these factors, the gap between the percentage expecting revenue growth and the percentage expecting a decline is still 14 percentage points higher among AI-using businesses than among non-AI-using businesses. The corresponding gap in employment expectations is still 10 percentage points higher for AI-using businesses. Businesses using AI are significantly more optimistic about future business expansion.
