[CITIC Securities: The market has entered a critical window period for the landing of external disturbances, and the spring offensive may be advanced] CITIC Securities said that the market will enter a critical window period for the landing of external disturbances next week, with the formal inauguration of the US President, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and the US federal debt reaching its ceiling; the trading loss index we created shows that the short-term correction of the A-share market has basically ended, and the grabbing index we created has observed that the rushing behavior of trading is happening and will continue, and the spring offensive may be advanced. On the one hand, during the critical window period, the market's expectations for the landing of external disturbances and China's policy response are relatively consistent. We have made a game deduction on the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets: the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the first quarter; the bond market will maintain low-level fluctuations; the spring offensive of the stock market may start in advance. On the other hand, we analyzed the characteristics of the A-share market, and the trading loss index showed that the short-term correction has basically ended. The grabbing index observed that the rushing behavior of trading has occurred in the past two weeks. The "1.0 rushing" that has occurred is a rushing for the landing of external disturbances, and in the last full trading week before the holiday, it is possible that the "2.0 stage" of rushing for the landing of configurations after the Spring Festival will continue. In terms of configuration, we recommend continuing to maintain the barbell strategy of dividends + themes, with the theme further strengthening the overseas direction.
