Statement and economic expectations:
1.
Dot plot: The number of interest rate cuts this year may be reduced to one (two in March). Under this premise, if the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 remains unchanged at two, the interest rate expectations at the end of 2025-26 will all move up by 25 basis points; if the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 increases to three, the interest rate expectations at the end of 2026 will remain unchanged.
2. Economic expectations: Under the dual impact of tariffs and Middle East conflicts, core PCE expectations may be slightly raised (2.8% in March), which is the key to whether and how much interest rates will be cut. GDP expectations may be lowered and unemployment rates may be raised.
3. Statement comparison: The description of economic activity remains "robust", and the "uncertainty of the economic outlook further increases" may be changed to "uncertainty remains high".
4. Statement of balance sheet reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing US$5 billion in US Treasuries and US$35 billion in MBS per month).
Powell press conference:
1. Powell may continue to hold a hawkish and cautious stance, emphasizing uncertainty.
2. Asked about tariffs: Do you still think it is a one-time shock? Will there be a rate cut without tariffs? Are you concerned about the current situation or the future?
3. Respond to Trump's pressure to cut interest rates and insist on the independence of the Federal Reserve.
4. Asked about the Iran-Israel conflict: Does it have an impact on short-term inflation expectations? How long do you think it will last?
5. Asked about relaxing the bank's supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)? The Federal Reserve will meet next Thursday to discuss the proposed revisions.
6. Trump may make trouble again after the meeting. Before the meeting, Trump expected the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates and raised the interest rate cut requirement to 250 basis points.
