【Goldman Sachs expects 618 GMV to grow by 10% to 11% this year
E-commerce prefers JD.com and Kuaishou】Goldman Sachs published a report stating that China's e-commerce industry performed robustly during the 2025 618 Shopping Festival, and expected total GMV (before deducting returns) to grow by about 10 to 11%, with package volume growing by 15% between May 12 and June 15. Goldman Sachs said that due to the weaker profit outlook for e-commerce platforms in the second quarter, the bank recommends a more defensive sub-industry allocation strategy, giving priority to games, mobile travel and Internet verticals. In the e-commerce sector, JD.com (09618.HK) and Kuaishou (01024.HK) are preferred, both with a "buy" rating. The report mentioned that during this year's 618 Shopping Festival, electronic/home appliance products drove healthy growth in industry GMV; GMV growth of existing e-commerce companies and emerging short video platforms was consistent; more emphasis was placed on instant on-demand e-commerce; platforms continued to support merchants and ecosystems through simplified promotional activities; and the application of artificial intelligence in e-commerce activities increased.
