Fed-Tariff risks have not yet emerged, and it may be difficult to cut interest rates before autumn
1. Fed Chairman Powell bluntly said that if it were not for the tariff risk, interest rates might have been cut long ago.
2. BNP Paribas: Due to the large amount of untaxed inventory, the direct transmission effect of tariffs on prices is not obvious. It is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates until autumn or even later.
3. Goldman Sachs: The impact of tariffs is weaker than expected. Slowing wage growth and weakening demand are expected to drive inflation back. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is slightly higher than 50%.
ECB-Euro appreciation and export pressure may promote autumn interest rate cuts
1. The minutes of the June meeting emphasized that high tariffs and euro appreciation put pressure on exports, and worried that inflation would continue to be below target.
2. Commerzbank: It is expected to cut interest rates in the fall to ease the impact of tariffs on exports and the downward pressure on prices.
3. ANZ Bank: The eurozone is expected to grow weakly in the next few quarters, and the central bank will cut interest rates by another 25BP in September.
Bank of England-Tariffs break the dilemma and promote multiple rate cuts in the second half of the year
1. Faced with a dilemma, economic growth is weak and cracks appear in the labor market, but inflation is still far above the 2% target and may rise in the summer.
2. Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to start cutting interest rates in August and continue to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025.
3. Bank of America: The impact of global tariffs is expected to drive inflation in the UK to slow down and economic growth to weaken; the central bank will cut interest rates in August, September and November.
Bank of Japan-The worst case has been avoided and tariffs will delay rate hikes
1. The worst case of 30% to 35% tariffs has been avoided, but tariffs will cause a sharp drop in profits of exporting companies, thereby affecting wage growth. The new deadline is set on August 1, and the central bank will have difficulty in doing anything in July.
2. Capital Economics: If a 25% tariff is avoided and the tariff level is only moderately increased, the expectation of an October rate hike will not be shaken. If negotiations are delayed or tariffs are significantly increased, the rate hike may be postponed to 2026.
3. Japan's largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance: May raise interest rates once in the second half of fiscal 2025. If negotiations get stuck and the economic impact is significant, there may be no rate hike this fiscal year.
Bank of Canada-The trade situation has improved, but the risk of economic contraction may force the central bank to cut interest rates
1. The Canadian Finance Minister said that he could negotiate the best trade agreement with the United States and refuted the claim that he might accept a "baseline tariff" on exports to the United States.
2. Deloitte Canada: The Canadian economy is expected to shrink in Q2 and Q3, the unemployment rate will soar to 7.3%, and growth this year will slow to 1%.
3. Capital Economics: Q2 faces a clear risk of economic contraction, and the quarterly annualized growth rate will remain below 1% for the rest of the year, prompting the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at least twice more.
Reserve Bank of Australia-Slowing inflation and high uncertainty hinder rate cuts
1. July interest rate decision: unexpectedly no rate cut. Uncertainty remains high, but financial market prices have rebounded, which may avoid the worst case scenario, inflation continues to slow, and there is the ability to wait for more information.
假期.jpg)
