1. According to the expected value of foreign media surveys, as of the week of July 3, the net export sales of soybeans in the United States in the 2024/25 market year are expected to be between 300,000 and 600,000 tons, and the net export sales of soybeans in the 2025/26 market year are expected to be between 50,000 and 400,000 tons.
2. According to Mysteel, the online auction of coking coal in the Luliang market was held on July 9. Lishi low-sulfur main coke A11, S1.0, and G85 were listed for 20,000 tons, with a starting price of 1,040 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1,123 yuan/ton, an increase of 123 yuan/ton from the previous period on June 25. The coal mine did not participate in the online auction last week, and the market sentiment fermented, so the price increase of this auction was significantly expanded.
3. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, based on the basis of soybean meal and soybean oil in the far month in South China, the profit of soybean spot crushing in August-September is -40~10 yuan/ton. At present, my country's soybean purchases for August shipment are basically completed, more than 60% of September shipments, and no ships have been purchased for October-January shipments. Pay attention to the subsequent purchase of ships by oil mills and the arrival of imported soybeans.
4. S&P Global Commodity
Insights' survey of 17 analysts showed that in the second half of June, sugar production in central and southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.95 million tons. The survey showed that sugarcane crushing is expected to decrease by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons.
5. BMI National Risk and Industry Research Institute said in a report that Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase to 19.5 million tons in 2025/26, an increase of 0.5%.
6. The latest data from the UAE Fujairah Oil Industry Zone shows that as of the week of July 7, the total inventory of refined oil in the UAE Fujairah Port was 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from a week ago.
7. According to Caixin, the photovoltaic industry is promoting a rescue plan of "anti-involution and decapacity". The current progress is that the leading silicon material companies plan to jointly establish a platform company to acquire excess capacity in the industrial chain in a debt-bearing manner.
8. The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that it is expected that the polysilicon market will still be dominated by wait-and-see in the short term, and the price may rise slightly due to market expectations. After the supply and demand relationship has substantially improved and the policy is strictly implemented to effectively prevent the resumption of production of backward production capacity, the price of polysilicon will gradually return to a reasonable range.
9. Goldman Sachs said that it maintains the London Metal Exchange copper price forecast of $9,700/ton in December 2025; the baseline forecast of the US copper import tariff is adjusted from the previous 25% to 50%. We believe that the risk of copper prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter has been reduced. U.S. copper imports are set to accelerate further in the coming weeks as the incentive to get ahead of tariffs grows.
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