Gold options data shows that, prior to the Fed's decision, the Put/Call ratio continued to rise but remained below 1, indicating that bullish expectations still prevailed, but short- and medium-term caution against pullbacks increased. The turnover ratio returned to around 0.5, weakening short-term bearish momentum and favoring a volatile continuation or a gradual upward trend.
The high-probability range rose from 15% to nearly 19%, with a steeper slope, especially above 3680-3700 (spot price approximately 3673-3693), indicating that "high prices lead to strong volatility." A break above this level could easily trigger a rapid retracement and false breakout. Strategically, focus on the gains and losses between 3680-3700: If the open interest ratio is greater than 1 and the implied volatility continues to rise, approaching 20%, be prepared to reduce positions on rallies and defend against pullbacks. If the turnover ratio continues to weaken to...
