US Dollar:
1.
Federal Reserve September Interest Rate Meeting—① Announced a 25 basis point rate cut, with Milan the only vote dissenting and supporting a 50 basis point cut. ② Powell stated that labor market risks are tilted to the downside, and the rate cut can be interpreted as a risk-management measure. The 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, and he reiterated the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation. ③ The median dot plot suggests a cumulative three rate cuts this year and one next year. Milan hopes for a cumulative 150 basis point cut this year. ④ Powell continued to implicitly express concerns about stagflation.
2. The US House of Representatives advanced a temporary appropriations bill in hopes of averting a government shutdown.
Major Non-US Currencies:
1. Nikkei: The Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold this week.
2. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%.
3. The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, in line with market expectations, and removed forward guidance on rate cuts from its policy statement. 4. Bank of Korea: The Federal Reserve's policy path remains highly uncertain. More policy space will be focused on domestic conditions.
5. Japanese Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Toshimitsu Motegi: If conditions permit, negotiations will continue with the United States on further tariff reductions.
6. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi: Japan's conditions allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, and the economy is now in a new phase.
7. The UK's CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in August, remaining at its highest level since early 2024. The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4% in this week's decision.
Others:
1. The Central Bank of Brazil kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15%, in line with expectations.
2. Ghana cut its benchmark interest rate by 350 basis points to 21.5%, down from 25% previously.
3. Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, despite market expectations of a 5% hold.
4. The Central Bank of Argentina denied that the peso had breached the upper limit of its trading range, stating that its calculations differed slightly from those based on a publicly disclosed formula. 5. Thailand's new Deputy Finance Minister stated: "The central bank must study how to prevent the Thai baht from over-appreciating." If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the baht could experience significant volatility.
6. The Central Bank of Ireland stated: "The current economic growth forecast faces downside risks due to the potential for further escalation of global trade tensions."
7. The Deputy Governor of the Czech National Bank stated: "Interest rate cuts should not be used to stimulate the economy."
