The options dashboard shows the put/call open interest ratio remaining around 0.92, below 1.
Bullish expectations remain dominant, but the advantage is narrowing, and short positions are accumulating. The volume ratio has been below 1 for most of the time. It briefly crossed above on September 12th before quickly falling back. It recently rebounded to around 0.7, indicating a rebound in short-term short-selling, but not yet a dominant trend. The trend is oscillating upward, with pullbacks testing bullish momentum and breakouts following suit.
The high-probability range shows an overall upward shift in the three-day moving average, with a positive slope and steeper levels. Volatility has risen from around 16% to 17.5%-19%, not reaching the 20% threshold. Higher prices increase volatility, and bullish sentiment is intensifying. The key price range is 3750 to 3770 (approximately $4.30 in the futures-to-spot spread). A steepening of the upper curve could trigger an acceleration, while a flattening of the lower curve could signal consolidation and await catalysts.
