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The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index for September will be released in ten minutes.

2025-09-19

The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index for September will be released in ten minutes.

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2025-09-18

The PainMap gold maximum pain price chart shows the current futures price at approximately 3673, above the maximum pain price of 3479. However, the maximum pain price itself continues to rise, weakening downward pressure. Short-term fluctuations at a

The PainMap gold maximum pain price chart shows the current futures price at approximately 3673, above the maximum pain price of 3479. However, the maximum pain price itself continues to rise, weakening downward pressure. Short-term fluctuations at a high level are more likely. The intrinsic value curve is U-shaped, with a narrow bottom and a steeper right side, indicating more sensitive positioning above the upper limit. The maximum pain price has steadily risen from approximately 3335 to 3478 over the past two weeks, with funds pushing up the settlement center of gravity, reflecting a combination of long position shifting and bearish position closing. Trading this represents a "statically bearish, dynamically bullish" divergence. A recommended range is: Buy lows and sell highs between 3650 and 3690. If the price breaks above 3690 with significant volume and the pain price continues to rise to ≥3500, a long position with a target of 3715/3735 can be adopted, and an exit can be made if the price falls below 3680. Conversely, if the price falls below 3650 and the pain price weakens, a short position with a target of 3620/3600 can be adopted. Note that with options expiring soon, news shocks could amplify volatility and invalidate the structure. (The above prices are for October gold futures, with a spot/futures spread of approximately $5.)
2025-09-18

1. Decision Background : Wednesday's data showed that UK inflation remained high at 3.8% in August, nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target. Services inflation remained elevated, while inflation expectations rose. Economic growth slowed in the

1. Decision Background : Wednesday's data showed that UK inflation remained high at 3.8% in August, nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target. Services inflation remained elevated, while inflation expectations rose. Economic growth slowed in the second quarter, with demand showing signs of weakness. 2. Interest Rate Level: The market generally expects the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady at 4% at this meeting. Focus will be on guidance for further easing this year. 3. Vote Split : The market expects a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates unchanged (compared to a 5-4 split in August), with Taylor and Dhingra dissenting (Taylor voted for a 50 basis point rate cut in August); Deputy Governor Ramsden may also join the dissenting vote. 4. Forward Guidance: The Bank of England stated in August that "the restrictiveness of monetary policy has decreased," which the market interpreted as hawkish. This meeting will highlight whether this statement appears again or is removed or weakened. 5. Quantitative Tightening : Due to heightened bond market volatility (earlier this month, 20- and 30-year gilt yields rose to their highest levels since 1998), the market expects the Bank of England to reduce its annual gilt reduction from £100 billion to £60 billion to £75 billion. It is also likely to limit sales of long-term gilts, favoring shorter-term bonds. 6. Market Expectations: Currently, the market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates unchanged this year, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut. A sustained cycle of rate cuts will begin in 2026, with cumulative reductions of approximately 50 basis points.
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