1. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank: The market has underestimated the authorities' actions, and it may have become more difficult for speculators to sell yen. If intervention continues, the USD/JPY exchange rate could fall below 155.
2. Mizuho Bank: The significance may not lie in the intervention itself, but in the signal it sends: the market increasingly believes that excessive yen weakness is no longer considered a problem solely for Japan.
3. Allianz Global Investors: The success of this joint US-Japan intervention depends on comprehensive policy coordination within Japan (between the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance, and the Prime Minister's Office); the US has no say.
4. Nomura Securities: Monday's sharp fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate were "highly likely" due to intervention. If the yen breaks through 155 on Monday, the intervention may pause, but if the pressure on the yen to weaken is strong, the intervention could continue into tomorrow.
5. Astris Advisory: The coordinated intervention by the US and Japan, and the US's unusual move to sell euros, indicate a coordinated effort to change the exchange rate trend. Therefore, further intervention should be expected if necessary.
6. JPMorgan Chase: The US Treasury has limited liquidity resources available to support further coordinated monetary intervention with Japan, but could mobilize up to $187 billion if more unconventional financing and asset allocation methods are adopted.
7. OCBC Bank: Given that the joint action with the US is still ongoing, the USD/JPY exchange rate could fall below 155 if stop-loss orders are triggered. However, whether the intervention can successfully reverse the yen's weakness depends on whether it complements or replaces a more hawkish central bank stance.
8. Goldman Sachs: If the yen begins to give back its recent gains, authorities are likely to intervene further in the coming days, as they did in May. We still believe that intervention is an effective tool for authorities to buy time until fundamental factors turn favorable.
9. SMBC Nikko Securities: This joint intervention has effectively raised the threshold for Japan to take action to maintain the yen's exchange rate support. With the US and Japan having revealed their hand, the yen now needs to be consolidated through fundamentals (monetary policy) rather than simply relying on intervention.
10. LONGi Bank: Japan's Ministry of Finance intervention is unlikely to be a turning point for the yen, but there is room for a short squeeze this week, which could at least temporarily push the yen higher against the dollar. Given fiscal concerns and the central bank's gradual interest rate hikes, this intervention cannot continue indefinitely.
