Morgan Stanley global chief economist Seth Carpenter said oil prices above $125 per barrel would mark a fundamental shift, forcing demand destruction to match constrained supply. He outlined scenarios of oil returning to $65–70, stabilizing near $100, or spiking to $125–140 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Seth Carpenter noted the U.S. could withstand $100 oil but warned higher gasoline prices would hit lower-income consumers and lift inflation. He also cautioned that broader supply chain disr

Morgan Stanley global chief economist Seth Carpenter said oil prices above $125 per barrel would mark a fundamental shift, forcing demand destruction to match constrained supply. He outlined scenarios of oil returning to $65–70, stabilizing near $100, or spiking to $125–140 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Seth Carpenter noted the U.S. could withstand $100 oil but warned higher gasoline prices would hit lower-income consumers and lift inflation. He also cautioned that broader supply chain disruptions could trigger shortages, stressing the difference between higher prices and physical unavailability.