Morgan Stanley global chief economist Seth Carpenter said oil prices above $125
per barrel would mark a fundamental shift, forcing demand destruction to match
constrained supply. He outlined scenarios of oil returning to $65–70,
stabilizing near $100, or spiking to $125–140 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Seth Carpenter noted the U.S. could withstand $100 oil but warned higher
gasoline prices would hit lower-income consumers and lift inflation. He also
cautioned that broader supply chain disruptions could trigger shortages,
stressing the difference between higher prices and physical unavailability.
