Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is where “the real action could be found.” He noted that while officials are guessing on oil prices, inflation is projected 0.3 percentage points higher without a major growth drag. Jacobsen added, “It’s similar to how they overestimated the effect of tariffs on inflation and underestimated the growth drag. 2026 could be like the last two years…they end up being surprised, a

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is where “the real action could be found.” He noted that while officials are guessing on oil prices, inflation is projected 0.3 percentage points higher without a major growth drag. Jacobsen added, “It’s similar to how they overestimated the effect of tariffs on inflation and underestimated the growth drag. 2026 could be like the last two years…they end up being surprised, and they cut in September.”