Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said the
Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is where “the real action could be
found." He noted that while officials are guessing on oil prices, inflation is
projected 0.3 percentage points higher without a major growth drag. Jacobsen
added, “It’s similar to how they overestimated the effect of tariffs on
inflation and underestimated the growth drag. 2026 could be like the last two
years…they end up being surprised, and they cut in September.”
