【期货热点追踪】沪镍期货触及三个月高位，受到印尼减产配额导致供应减少的担忧支撑，叠加硫磺短缺导致成本飙升，供应端风暴将如何重塑全球镍市定价？

Danske Bank - April decision: Hold rates unchanged (in line with consensus and pricing) - Policy path: First cut expected in September (earlier than market pricing) - Forward guidance: Unlikely to provide firm signals yet - Other considerations: · Possible final meeting for Powell as Chair; may clarify post-chair plans (Board term to Jan 2028) · Likely to reaffirm slower T-bill purchase pace after April - Market bias: Risks tilted toward lower UST yields and weaker USD if easing remains on the table ING - April decision: Hold rates unchanged - Macro backdrop: Growth continues but faces headwinds; energy costs pushing inflation higher - Market pricing: Minimal expectations for April; ~10bp easing priced by year-end - Policy path: Two cuts in 2026 (September, December) - Fed projections: One 25bp cut (March projections) - Focus: Powell press conference (potentially final as Chair), including legacy and future role ANZ - April decision: Hold at 3.50–3.75% - Policy stance: Patient; waiting for: · Clear disinflation progress · Tariff effects to fade - Risks: Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices - Policy path: Cuts resume in Q3 (likely September) - Inflation view: Gradual disinflation supported by moderating wages, margin compression, anchored expectations J.P. Morgan - April decision: Hold rates - Policy path (base case): · No cuts in 2026 · 25bp hike in Q3 2027 - Conditionality: Cuts possible if: · Labor market weakens materially · Energy-driven economic drag intensifies Morgan Stanley - April decision: (Implicit) No urgency to move; focus on underlying inflation dynamics - Policy path: Rate cuts in 2026 despite oil-driven inflation - Core view: · Headline inflation distorted by energy · Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored - Framework: Fed likely to look through energy shocks if core disinflation trend persists - Assumption: Limited pass-through from oil to core inflation

KAZAKHSTAN ENERGY MINISTRY: NOT CONSIDERING LEAVING OPEC+