Prediction markets show divergent views on Jerome Powell’s timeline to step down as Fed governor. On Kalshi, bettors assign a 30% chance he leaves by June, rising to 66% by August and 81% by year-end. In contrast, Polymarket traders see an 87% probability of a mid-May departure. Powell said he would remain until a Justice Department probe concluded, which has since been dropped. He is expected to address his plans after the Fed meeting, as Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh advances in the Senat

Prediction markets show divergent views on Jerome Powell’s timeline to step down as Fed governor. On Kalshi, bettors assign a 30% chance he leaves by June, rising to 66% by August and 81% by year-end. In contrast, Polymarket traders see an 87% probability of a mid-May departure. Powell said he would remain until a Justice Department probe concluded, which has since been dropped. He is expected to address his plans after the Fed meeting, as Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh advances in the Senate.