Prediction markets show divergent views on Jerome Powell’s timeline to step down
as Fed governor. On Kalshi, bettors assign a 30% chance he leaves by June,
rising to 66% by August and 81% by year-end. In contrast, Polymarket traders see
an 87% probability of a mid-May departure. Powell said he would remain until a departure
Justice Department probe concluded, which has since been dropped. He is expected
to address his plans after the Fed meeting, as Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin
Warsh advances in the Senate.
