CITIC Securities' consumer-sector 2026 H2 strategy says three signals—record
tech crowding, policy tilt from supply-side reform to demand stimulus (so‑called
'anti‑involution' measures), and the onset of a low‑rate era—combine to favor a
barbell rebalancing rather than a binary consumption vs. tech trade. The firm
expects the current consumption recovery to be driven by supply‑side clearing
ahead of demand recovery, producing a mild, uneven upswing reliant on
stock‑specific alpha. Near term, supply dynamics—inventory destocking and eased
competition—should let market leaders rebound first; policy catalysts or
stronger‑than‑expected growth could create broader beta opportunities. Long
term, maintain structural allocation to new products, technologies, channels and
markets.
