CITIC Securities' consumer-sector 2026 H2 strategy says three signals—record tech crowding, policy tilt from supply-side reform to demand stimulus (so‑called 'anti‑involution' measures), and the onset of a low‑rate era—combine to favor a barbell rebalancing rather than a binary consumption vs. tech trade. The firm expects the current consumption recovery to be driven by supply‑side clearing ahead of demand recovery, producing a mild, uneven upswing reliant on stock‑specific alpha. Near term, sup

CITIC Securities' consumer-sector 2026 H2 strategy says three signals—record tech crowding, policy tilt from supply-side reform to demand stimulus (so‑called 'anti‑involution' measures), and the onset of a low‑rate era—combine to favor a barbell rebalancing rather than a binary consumption vs. tech trade. The firm expects the current consumption recovery to be driven by supply‑side clearing ahead of demand recovery, producing a mild, uneven upswing reliant on stock‑specific alpha. Near term, supply dynamics—inventory destocking and eased competition—should let market leaders rebound first; policy catalysts or stronger‑than‑expected growth could create broader beta opportunities. Long term, maintain structural allocation to new products, technologies, channels and markets.