The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook says the Middle East conflict and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have increased the risk of a major global economic shock. Nearly 90% of surveyed chief economists expect global growth to slow over the next 12 months; as many as 94% expect global inflation to rise over the same period. Respondents judge the damage from a Strait of Hormuz shipping “blockage” to be materially larger than last year’s tariff disruptions. If shipping bott

The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook says the Middle East conflict and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have increased the risk of a major global economic shock. Nearly 90% of surveyed chief economists expect global growth to slow over the next 12 months; as many as 94% expect global inflation to rise over the same period. Respondents judge the damage from a Strait of Hormuz shipping “blockage” to be materially larger than last year’s tariff disruptions. If shipping bottlenecks persist into H2, they would amplify supply-chain strains and push up energy and food costs. The report expects the Middle East and North Africa to be most affected with weak growth, sees sharply higher inflation expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa, and warns of a rising stagflation risk in Europe.