The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook says the Middle East conflict
and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have increased the risk of a
major global economic shock. Nearly 90% of surveyed chief economists expect
global growth to slow over the next 12 months; as many as 94% expect global
inflation to rise over the same period. Respondents judge the damage from a
Strait of Hormuz shipping “blockage” to be materially larger than last year’s
tariff disruptions. If shipping bottlenecks persist into H2, they would amplify
supply-chain strains and push up energy and food costs. The report expects the
Middle East and North Africa to be most affected with weak growth, sees sharply
higher inflation expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa, and warns of a rising
stagflation risk in Europe.
