China International Capital Co said the real estate sector has experienced two cycles since 2026; although YTD returns remain limited, market attention, positioning and expectations have improved versus 2025. Q1 saw durable improvement in Beijing and Shanghai second‑hand markets, but recent share‑price retracement to lows suggests capital markets still doubt the recovery. Over the next 6–12 months, CICC identifies end‑Q3/early‑Q4 as the next key trend‑confirmation window and views the on‑the‑gro

China International Capital Co said the real estate sector has experienced two cycles since 2026; although YTD returns remain limited, market attention, positioning and expectations have improved versus 2025. Q1 saw durable improvement in Beijing and Shanghai second‑hand markets, but recent share‑price retracement to lows suggests capital markets still doubt the recovery. Over the next 6–12 months, CICC identifies end‑Q3/early‑Q4 as the next key trend‑confirmation window and views the on‑the‑ground market as likely to show stronger performance; it recommends buying on dips. On a longer horizon, CICC sees a material probability that developers' operating fundamentals may broadly recover around 2028.