China International Capital Co said the real estate sector has experienced two
cycles since 2026; although YTD returns remain limited, market attention,
positioning and expectations have improved versus 2025. Q1 saw durable
improvement in Beijing and Shanghai second‑hand markets, but recent share‑price
retracement to lows suggests capital markets still doubt the recovery. Over the
next 6–12 months, CICC identifies end‑Q3/early‑Q4 as the next key
trend‑confirmation window and views the on‑the‑ground market as likely to show
stronger performance; it recommends buying on dips. On a longer horizon, CICC
sees a material probability that developers' operating fundamentals may broadly
recover around 2028.
