Market consensus sees May employment up about 10,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9%. Scotiabank says the Canadian labor market has been weak year-to-date: three of the first four months posted net job losses and cumulative employment fell by more than 100,000 through April. Canada is in a technical recession after Q1 2026 GDP contracted at an annualized QoQ rate of 0.1%; Scotiabank attributes the decline largely to a sharp rise in imports while household consumption stayed positive.

Market consensus sees May employment up about 10,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9%. Scotiabank says the Canadian labor market has been weak year-to-date: three of the first four months posted net job losses and cumulative employment fell by more than 100,000 through April. Canada is in a technical recession after Q1 2026 GDP contracted at an annualized QoQ rate of 0.1%; Scotiabank attributes the decline largely to a sharp rise in imports while household consumption stayed positive. Given persistent weak jobs data, trade-policy uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks, Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada under Governor Tiff Macklem to remain on hold, and market consensus expects the overnight rate to be left unchanged for at least the next several meetings.