Market consensus sees May employment up about 10,000 and the unemployment rate
unchanged at 6.9%. Scotiabank says the Canadian labor market has been weak
year-to-date: three of the first four months posted net job losses and
cumulative employment fell by more than 100,000 through April. Canada is in a
technical recession after Q1 2026 GDP contracted at an annualized QoQ rate of
0.1%; Scotiabank attributes the decline largely to a sharp rise in imports while
Household consumption stayed positive. Given persistent weak jobs data,
trade-policy uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks, Scotiabank expects the
Bank of Canada under Governor Tiff Macklem to remain on hold, and market
consensus expects the overnight rate to be left unchanged for at least the next
several meetings.
