Monex Europe analysts said if the Bank of England does not raise rates and UK political risk increases, sterling could weaken in the coming months. They said recent weak UK data does not support market expectations of a rate hike this year, and they still view a hike before 2027 as unlikely while a cut by year-end remains possible. Monex added that Andy Burnham winning the June 18 by-election and re-entering Parliament could threaten Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership. Monex forecasts GBP/USD t

Fitch says the US‑Iran war‑driven oil shock has weakened global growth prospects, cutting its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.2ppt to 2.4%. Higher inflation is squeezing real wages, curbing consumption and raising corporate input costs, prompting broad downward revisions to growth. Stronger‑than‑expected AI‑related IT investment is offsetting some weakness, supporting world trade and Asian exports. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 14 weeks; Fitch assumes reopening in July. Fitch raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $87/bbl from $70/bbl in March. The agency views the oil shock as a material headwind but not as severe as 1970s oil crises. Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to hold rates this year and resume cuts in 2027; it forecasts a 25bp ECB hike in June, with policy reversal next year.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister NOVAK said all oil-market estimates should be significantly revised.