Monex Europe analysts said if the Bank of England does not raise rates and UK political risk increases, sterling could weaken in the coming months. They said recent weak UK data does not support market expectations of a rate hike this year, and they still view a hike before 2027 as unlikely while a cut by year-end remains possible. Monex added that Andy Burnham winning the June 18 by-election and re-entering Parliament could threaten Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership. Monex forecasts GBP/USD t

Monex Europe analysts said if the Bank of England does not raise rates and UK political risk increases, sterling could weaken in the coming months. They said recent weak UK data does not support market expectations of a rate hike this year, and they still view a hike before 2027 as unlikely while a cut by year-end remains possible. Monex added that Andy Burnham winning the June 18 by-election and re-entering Parliament could threaten Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership. Monex forecasts GBP/USD to fall from 1.3455 to 1.32 and GBP/EUR from 1.1559 to 1.11 by this autumn.